Board facts & stats

Question 1

About how many people did the Literary Digest survey before wrongly predicting the 1936 US election?

Accepted Answer

about 2.3 million. Despite the huge sample, biased mail-in postcards led to one of polling history's most famous failures.

Question 2

One study found surveys with a response rate near 20% were about as accurate as surveys with a response rate near what higher figure?

Accepted Answer

about 60–70%. This counterintuitive finding suggests a much higher response rate doesn't always mean a more accurate survey.

Question 3

In what year did researcher Paul Lazarsfeld develop the 'panel' survey method still used today?

Accepted Answer

1938. Panel surveys ask the same group of people the same questions repeatedly over time to track how opinions change.

Question 4

In what year did mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace estimate France's population using a sample?

Accepted Answer

1786. This is considered one of the earliest documented uses of scientific sampling, long before modern polling existed.

Question 5

The earliest known opinion polls in America appeared around which presidential election?

Accepted Answer

1824. Newspapers reported informal 'straw polls' of voter preferences even in the young republic's early elections.

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